India Starlink setback could impact SpaceX IPO

Counterpoint Research co-founder and research VP Neil Shah warned reports India hit the brakes on licensing SpaceX’s Starlink service could be bad news for the company’s IPO.

In a post on X, the analyst pointed to the scale of the Indian market along with highlighting the connection between revenue generation and investment in space projects.

Shah argued these elements are all at risk if India halts approvals for the launch of commercial Starlink services, in turn putting a “spanner in the wheel” of SpaceX’s pending IPO.

The reported timing of India’s intentions is “really bad”, Shah wrote.

Counterpoint Research’s executive was responding to a Bloomberg article indicated India had put approval processes on ice. Authorities are concerned over reports unlicensed Starlink terminals had been used in Iran, the news outlet stated.

Shah added India’s “highly sensitive, contested borders” are another factor, making the “threat of unmonitored, untraceable satellite terminals operating on its soil” without domestic oversight an “absolute red line”.

Bloomberg noted India’s population is the biggest in the world: Shah put the proportion at 40%.

The news outlet highlighted Lauren Dreyer, VP of Business Operations at Starlink, used X to explain the company “remains in active and productive discussions” with India’s government.

Dreyer branded the speculation “misleading” and “based on unsubstantiated claims from anonymous sources”.

Shah noted the potential licensing fracas indicates sovereignty assurances are emerging as an important requirement for privately-held companies seeking to deliver space-based services in “key economies”, pointing to moves by China and the European Union covering low Earh orbit services as examples.

Bloomberg stated SpaceX is preparing an expected historic listing on 12 June.